NOVEMBER 24, 2010 – Washington, DC
While the 2008 electorate was
the most diverse in American history, and voters gave the majority of their
votes to Democrats, the 2010 midterm election experienced unusually high
participation from older and wealthier voters who strongly favored Republican
candidates, according to a new
analysis released today by Project Vote.
Two years ago, African Americans, lower-income
Americans, and young Americans participated in the 2008 presidential election
in historic numbers. This November, however, these groups largely stayed home,
as did most Americans. According
to the new memo by Dr. Lorraine Minnite, “non-voters were the majority in
2010,” a fact that “throws cold water on any victor’s claims for a mandate.”
The new analysis—based on exit poll data and
preliminary results from the United States Election Project—found that turnout
in 2010 was similar to 2006, and followed patterns typical of midterm
elections. Absent a national race to galvanize new and minority voters, fewer
voters turnout and the populations that do vote tend to be older. The racial
composition of the population that voted in 2010 closely mirrored that of 2006:
eighty percent of voters were white, ten percent were black, eight percent
Latino, and two percent Asian.
However, several distinct features of the 2010
voting population stand out, and contributed to the results on November 2:
1.
Senior
citizens turned out in force, with
the number of ballots cast by voters over 65 increasing by 16 percent. While
making up only 13 percent of the U.S. resident population, Americans in this
age group constituted 21 percent of 2010 voters. This age group also
significantly increased their support of Republican candidates, from 49 percent
in 2006 to 59 percent in 2010.
2. The number of ballots cast by Americans from households
making over $200,000 a year increased by
68 percent compared to 2006.
3.
Relative
to 2008, minority and youth voters dropped out of the voting population at
higher rates than whites, undoing much of the gain in demographic parity
achieved in 2008.
4.
Women—already
one of the most reliable voting groups—increased their share of the electorate,
and significantly increased their support of the Republican Party.
5.
Bucking
the national trends, Latinos increased their share of the voting population in
several states, saving at least three Senate seats for the Democrats.
“It is fair to say that 2010 was the year of
older, rich people,” Dr. Minnite writes in the study.
“As in most midterm elections, the people who
voted in 2010 were not really representative of the American people,” says
Michael Slater, executive director of Project Vote. “This study raises serious
questions about which constituencies candidates choose to court and engage as
they look ahead to 2012, since the electorate, as a whole, is shifting away
from the views and values of the older, wealthier white conservatives who
dominated the 2010 election.”
To read
the full research memo, go to https://www.projectvote.org/images/publications/2010Electorate.pdf